The tourism sector: in search of a rapid recovery

The Covid-19 health crisis has caused acute damage to the tourism industry worldwide. UNWTO estimates that this year worldwide international tourist arrivals could drop by as much as 30%, with a corresponding loss of international tourism revenue of up to $ 450 billion. While according to the WTTC, the travel and tourism sector will face a loss of 100 million jobs due to the pandemic.

Still, news has emerged in recent days that provides some clarity and hope on the long road to recovery. The fact that the pandemic is beginning to be overcome in the east and that several key source markets have announced plans to complete stages to end the confinement allow planning to reopen operations.

Countdown to open borders

IATA has raised its voice to give its vision on the state of commercial aviation. Juniac CEO Alexandre said: “The industry is in free fall and we have not hit bottom. But there will come a time, soon, I hope, when the authorities are ready to start easing mobility restrictions and opening borders. It is imperative. that governments work with industry now to prepare for that day. It is the only way to ensure that we have measures in place to keep passengers safe while traveling and to assure governments that aviation will not be a vector in the spread of the disease We must also avoid the confusion and complexity that followed 9.11. Global standards that are mutually accepted and operationally practicable will be critical to achieving this. The only way to get there is to work together. “

At the same time, the cruise industry continues to be expectant and working on the implementation of new safety and hygiene standards. At first it was thought that it would be one or two months, but for now the big companies have made June the month of restarting operations, although the final word is held by the governments of each country.

One of the immediate consequences is that the trips will be shorter. This is because the reopening of the ports will not be the same in all countries. It is possible that there will be a coincidence of dates in those of Europe, but while the Mediterranean ships sail again in other places such as the Caribbean, they may remain closed. Another point is that it depends not only if a port is open, but also if air connections are active.

Thus, the industry could rethink its strategy and instead of designing mega-cruises with more than 5,000 passengers, choose vessels with fewer than 1,000 seats.

For this reason, UNWTO has been guiding the response of the tourism sector on several fronts:

• Cooperating closely with the World Health Organization, the lead agency of the United Nations for the management of this outbreak.
• Ensuring that health measures are applied, ensuring that the unnecessary repercussions on travel are minimized.
• Highlighting demonstrated resilience and supporting recovery.

Several countries in Asia, Oceania, Europe, and even America plan to open their tourism infrastructure during June. In the meantime, they have begun to implement new hygiene and safety regulations that allow tourists to be offered maximum peace of mind when traveling.

Signs of optimism

According to a survey conducted in April and published today by WeTravel, 70% of tour operators reschedule trips to October 2020 and beyond; While 56% expect a significant decrease in income, but maintain a positive outlook for 2021.

Most tour operators are confident that travel will increase again in the fall of this year. Almost a third of those surveyed have rescheduled their sales for the period from June to September 2020. Almost 40% will postpone it until October-December 2020. The rest plan to delay all their operations to 2021, while closely monitoring the situation.

More than half of the companies surveyed expect to see their 2020 revenue decline by at least 50% compared to 2019. 10% of companies even predict a revenue decline of> 90% this year. This number could increase as 21% of respondents are still unsure about COVID-19’s impact on revenue this year.
Almost half of the respondents have managed to grant full refunds to their travelers, while 27% wait for refunds from their suppliers first.

However, only 39% of providers are willing to give full refunds to tour operators, while 11% are not willing to refund at all or even reprogram.
Tour operators are trying to resolve the situation by offering travel credits or asking for a longer time horizon to complete the refunds.

Most tour operators have a positive outlook for 2021. While 55% of respondents have a negative outlook for the second half of 2020, only 22% have the same outlook for 2021. Almost a third of companies surveyed they have a positive outlook for the coming year, 26% have a fair outlook, while 21% are still unsure. When asked how long it will take for the industry to recover, 44% believe it will take 6 to 12 months.

Immunizations scheduled for September

One of the most upsetting news is that several laboratories have reported that they are advancing in their fight against the pandemic, in recent days it has been announced that several vaccines are already in a human testing stage and would be available on a large scale during September.