Tourist Arrivals Down 87% in January 2021 as UNWTO calls for Stronger Coordination to Restart Tourism

INTERNATIONAL. The World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) has called for stronger coordination on the restart of tourism after releasing data which shows that international tourist arrivals fell by -87% year-on-year in January.

With 32% of all global destinations completely closed to international tourists at the beginning of February, UNWTO said it expects international tourist arrivals to be down about -85% in the first quarter of 2021 over the same period of pre-COVID 2019. This would represent a loss of some 260 million international arrivals when compared to pre-pandemic levels.

Giving a longer-term outlook, UNWTO has outlined two scenarios for 2021, which consider a possible rebound in international travel in the second half of the year.

The World Tourism Organisation has plotted two scenarios in an attempt to predict tourism recovery levels for 2021 (click to enlarge)

These scenarios are based on a number of factors, most notably a concerted lifting of travel restrictions, the success of vaccination programmes, and the introduction of harmonised protocols such as the Digital Green Certificate planned by the European Commission.

UNWTO’s first scenario points to a rebound in July, which would result in a +65% increase in international arrivals for the full year 2021 compared to the historic lows of 2020. In this case, arrivals would still be -55% below the levels recorded in 2019.

The second scenario considers a potential rebound in September, leading to a +30% increase in arrivals across 2021 compared to last year. However, UNWTO noted, this would be -67% below the levels of 2019.

The -87% January decline finding comes from the latest edition of UNWTO’s World Tourism Barometer. Asia Pacific was the hardest-hit region, recording a fall of -96% for the month (the travel impact of the COVID-19 pandemic only really started to bite in February 2020). Europe and Africa both posted a -85% decline in arrivals, while the Middle East fared little better, with a fall of -84%.

A region-by-region breakdown of international tourist arrivals for January 2021 tells its own stark story (click to enlarge)

The fall in the Americas was smaller (-77%), following on from improved results in the final quarter of 2021, UNWTO noted.

The tourism body highlighted tightened travel restrictions in response to new virus outbreaks, mandatory testing and quarantines as the major contributing factors to the fall in international arrivals. It also observed that the speed and distribution of the vaccination roll-out have been slower than expected, further delaying the restart of tourism.

UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili said: “2020 was the worst year on record for tourism. The international community needs to take strong and urgent action to ensure a brighter 2021. Many millions of livelihoods and businesses are depending on it.”

He added: “Improved coordination between countries and harmonised travel and health protocols are essential to restore confidence in tourism and allow international travel to resume safely ahead of the peak summer season in the northern hemisphere.”